Dr. Raphael Calel is a Ciriacy-Wantrup Postdoctoral Fellow at UC Berkeley, and a visiting fellow at the London School of Economics.
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Long before modern science warned of global warming, the Founding Fathers believed human activity was reshaping the planet’s climate—and they set out to prove it.
More about this author
Dr. Raphael Calel is a Ciriacy-Wantrup Postdoctoral Fellow at UC Berkeley, and a visiting fellow at the London School of Economics. His research examines the history of climate change politics, the effects of current policies, and how climate forecasts can be used to inform future action. More information and links to his other writings are available from his personal website.
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Storylines
An Alternative Approach to Representing Uncertainty in Physical Aspects of Climate Change
Co-authors: Theodore G. Shepherd, Emily Boyd, Sandra C. Chapman, Suraje Dessai, Ioana M. Dima-West, Hayley J. Fowler, Rachel James, Douglas Maraun, Olivia Martius, Catherine A. Senior, Adam H. Sobel, David A. Stainforth, Simon F. B. Tett, Kevin E. Trenberth, Bart J. J. M. van den Hurk, Nicholas W. Watkins, Robert L. Wilby and Dimitri A. Zenghelis | Climactic Change | November | 2018
As climate change research becomes more practical, scientists need clearer ways to present uncertainty. Traditionally, this has been done with probabilities based on climate models, but this method struggles with deep uncertainties. A new “storyline” approach is emerging. Storylines describe consistent sequences of possible events without assigning probabilities, focusing instead on understanding causes and plausibility. This method helps people better grasp risk, supports stronger decision-making, organizes uncertainty more clearly, and explores what is realistically possible—connecting physical and human aspects of climate change.
Co-authors: David A. Stainforth | Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society | June | 2017
Integrated assessment models (IAMs) combine science and economics to guide climate policy. Three key IAMs—DICE, FUND, and PAGE—help policymakers weigh the costs and benefits of climate action. Examining their physical foundations shows how differences in climate science affect estimates of human and economic impacts. It also makes these models clearer to scientists, encourages collaboration, and highlights key scientific uncertainties. By linking IAMs through shared physical concepts, researchers can compare models more effectively and better identify the best strategies for reducing emissions.
Evidence from the European Carbon Market
Co-authors: Antoine Dechezleprêtre | The Review of Economics and Statistics | March | 2016
This study examines how the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) influences technological innovation. By analyzing data from companies regulated under the system, researchers found that the EU ETS boosted low-carbon innovation by up to 10 percent, without reducing patenting in other areas. The policy’s effects were limited to participating firms, with no impact on those outside the system. Overall, the EU ETS is estimated to have increased Europe’s total low-carbon patenting activity by about 1 percent compared to a scenario without it.
Media by this author
Feature | January | 2022
Carbon offsets seem like an easy fix: if you release CO2, you can pay someone else to reduce it elsewhere. But is it really that simple? Our planet is being damaged faster than ever, yet change is possible. Planet A explores how we can move toward a greener future and rethink what solving climate change really means. Each Friday, the show looks at both personal actions and larger system changes needed to protect the Earth—offering a truly global perspective on solutions. In this episode, Kiyo Dörrer interviews climate experts Lambert Schneider, Raphael Calel, and Grant Rosoman.
Feature | June | 2012
Raphael Calel delivers a keynote at the Atlantic Workshop on Energy and Environmental Economics (AWEEE), a biennial scientific meeting founded in 2004. The workshop has become an important outlet for discussion and debate on the cutting edge of research in energy and environmental issues, with a limited number of participants from all over the world. The AWEEE combines keynote lectures on specific topics by prestigious academics, the presentation of research by invited speakers and other participants through an open call for papers, and a roundtable discussion on current practices in energy and environmental policies.
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